| |
HOME
NEWS
LIVE ODDS
SITEMAP
LINKS
CALENDAR
|
Sprint Cup Betting
September 28th Auto Racing news ... Sprint Cup Betting at sprint-cup-betting.com
NASCAR: Irwin Tools Night Race (7:43 PM ET, ABC)
2021-08-21
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves on to Thunder Valley for the “Bristol Night Race”, as it is most often called. To honor that tradition, this Saturday night’s event has been tabbed the Irwin Tools Night Race, replacing the longstanding Sharpie 500 name. This event puts short track racing on center stage under the lights at perhaps the circuit’s most exciting track. With 43 cars going around a half-mile oval banked at 36 degrees, the track is the closest thing to bumper cars that NASCAR has to offer. Strangely though, since the wider COT cars have been put in play in 2007, the actual number of wrecks and cars not finishing races here has dropped noticeably. This has drawn the ire of fans, who’ve actually complained of Bristol becoming boring. One driver who isn’t complaining is Kyle Busch, who has won three of the last seven Bristol races, including this one a year ago. He is listed at 6-1 by to win this week, just behind Jimmie Johnson (5-1), the spring winner here.
Since things are so different at Bristol nowadays as compared to the early part of the decade when drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch adopted this track as their own, it only makes sense to turn to the post-COT races when it comes to handicapping. In that sense, Kyle Busch is the man to beat. He boasts an average finish of 5.7 in the last seven Bristol races, with two wins and an additional Top 5. One of those trips to Victory Lane came in March. Busch easily paces the field in COT-laps led here as well, with 900. Next in line in that stat is Tony Stewart (10-1), with 525, followed by Kasey Kahne (25-1) with 305. Interestingly, neither of those latter two drivers have won here in that span. Carl Edwards (10-1) is another man to consider, as he has two Bristol, both in this race, in 2007 & 2008. With an average finish of 9.7, those are his only two Top 5’s however. Jimmie Johnson’s 5-1 favorite status is eye opening, since prior to his spring win, he had only averaged a 16.5 finish win one Top 5.
Greg Biffle (12-1) is strong at Bristol when he keeps his nose clean, and he usually contends for the win. His past two efforts on this track ended in fourth-place finishes and with only three poor results in a 15-race career, he's finished 12th or better in every other event. The No. 16 team also has momentum on their side with three consecutive top-fives on oval tracks that included a victory at Pocono a few weeks ago. Jeff Gordon (12-1) rarely has two bad races in a row, so last week's 27th-place finish should be put aside. On short tracks, he's been the class of the field in the past three years. Despite failing to win at Bristol, Martinsville, or Richmond, he's amassed nine top-fives, 12 top-10s, and 14 top-15s in 15 starts. Notably, his only three results outside the top 10 since the start of 2008 all came at Bristol, but his five career victories there more than makes up for the deficit. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1) is a very interesting case in that he is second among all drivers in average finish in the COT, at 9.3, including two Top 5’s. However, he has rarely been out front, leading just a single lap in those seven races. Denny Hamlin (10-1) and Kevin Harvick join Gordon among the three-time Top 5 finishers here since ’07, ranking just behind the mark of four held by Busch and Biffle. Incidentally, Mark Martin, at 30-1, had the dominant car here a year ago only to succumb late to Busch. Don’t be surprised to see Martin do well Saturday.
Among those you may want to avoid this week are Jamie McMurray (35-1), Juan Montoya (25-1), Matt Kenseth (20-1), and Clint Bowyer (20-1). This spring, Bowyer had a blown engine and finished 40th. His last Bristol top-10 came in fall 2008 and he's had progressively worse results in each passing race. Kenseth used to love coming to Bristol, but has averaged just a 16.7 finish in the COT with a single Top 5. He also is not clicking yet with his new crew chief. McMurray and Montoya both have average COT finishes in the 20’s at Bristol without a single Top 5. Montoya has at least paced 29 laps though, compared to McMurray’s zero.
Qualifying at Bristol used to be more critical, as prior to 2007, the average starting spot of the winner was a low 6.8 in Bristol’s 70 races. Since the COT has been around, the average has jumped to 10.4. Because of the fewer cautions and less trouble to deal with, it has proven more important to run well in practice rather than a qualifying lap. As proof, the average Happy Hour rank of the last seven Bristol winners is 9.6, but more importantly, four of those winners ranked in the Top 5. The winner usually gets out front and is able to stay out trouble. This week’s lineup will be set at 5:40 PM ET on Friday, ironically, right after Happy Hour. The Irwin Tools Night Race green flag is scheduled to wave on Saturday night at around 7:40 PM ET.
NASCAR: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 (1:00 PM ET, TNT)
2021-06-11
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series continues its summer tour with the first of two stops over the next eight weeks at Michigan International Speedway. The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 is slated for Sunday and a quick check of the odds board finds all of the usual top dogs expected to win. Jimmie Johnson is the official favorite at 7-2, with Kyle Busch next at 5-1, and both Jeff Gordon & Denny Hamlin the only other drivers in single digits at 8-1. Strangely, none of that quartet has won at Michigan since Jeff Gordon did so in 2001. In fact, he is the only one of them who has a win at this facility. Perhaps oddsmakers, or more importantly bettors, should take a closer look at drivers like Carl Edwards (20-1) Kurt Busch (10-1), or Matt Kenseth (15-1), more recent winners at MIS. Mark Martin (20-1), the defending champion of this race, could also be worth a shot.
The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the “Chase for the Cup”. Currently, Kevin Harvick (20-1) leads the standings by 19 points over Kyle Busch. The hot driver though is Denny Hamlin, who sits in third, 136 points back. Hamlin picked up his fourth win of the young season last week at Pocono. Again though, none of the three has ever won at Michigan and moreover, none has averaged any better than an average finish of 12.5 in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years. If there ever was a race where an upset winner could emerge this might be it. When you consider that Brian Vickers won in the most recent race here last August, the chances are even greater.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.1), and average finish over the last two years (4.0). In his last four starts, he has won, scored three Top 5’s, and led 107 total laps. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.9), and also has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races. Elsewhere, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jeff Gordon each also boast a pair Top 5 finishes in the COT. If you’ve noticed a pattern here, it’s that Roush Racing seems to have a good handle on what it takes to win at Michigan. You may have also noticed that the name of Jimmie Johnson has not been mentioned in the top finishing stats. That is because he has endured some bad luck at MIS of late, much like his recent 2010 season. Though he has led a dominant 356 laps in the last four races here, he has averaged a finish of 19.5 without a single Top 5.
So much of what happens nowadays in NASCAR hinges on which drivers are hot lately. As such, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin have to be considered contenders on Sunday. Between the three of them, they have won six of the last seven races overall. They are also three of the Top 5 in the season standings. Of those, Kyle has the best recent resume at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.8 in the COT and 48 laps led during that four-race span. Hamlin has done reasonably well throughout his career, with an average finish of 13.3 but just 5 total laps led in eight starts. Kurt has two career wins at MIS, but those are his only Top 5 finishes among an average of 20.3 in 18 starts.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season’s second race won by Jimmie Johnson, who held off the trio of Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Joey Logano. With this being the “sister-track”, expect all of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday.
Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, seven of the last 10 winners, including Mark Martin last year (32nd), started outside the Top 10. In fact, Martin became the first driver to start worse than 28th and win. Practice in the COT era has been a huge factor, with the winner in the last four races averaging a rank of 2.75 in Happy Hour with three of the four ranking first or second. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 1:15 PM ET on Sunday.
|
|
|